EFB DRAFT RANKINGS

Monday April 28th, 2008

Shootin' The Bull: Fuentes Takes His Job Back

by Tarrell Graham

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Overall Top 25 Drafts

Top 10 rankings by Scoring Category

League by League Breakdown

For those of you that haven’t gotten a chance to check out The Biz’s “Sunday Sermon” on the NFL draft, you really need to take a peak. The Biz probably isn’t going to help your fantasy baseball team, but he may save your soul. OK…he probably isn’t going to save your soul either, but “The Sermon” is a great read and also an important part of our unique approach to fantasy sports. Providing you with advice and hardcore fantasy analysis is our main objective, but “The Sermon “ is second to none in off-color sports commentary. I highly recommend it.

Manny Corpas/Brian Fuentes – The biggest story of the week was definitely Rockies closer Manny Corpas been removed from his 9th inning duties. I am shocked that Corpas has struggled so dreadfully this season. I had Manny as a real value pick going into the 08’drafts and after the way he performed last season, I didn’t thing he was capable of stringing together such horrible performances. Before being removed from the closer role early last week, Corpas had allowed at least one ER is 6 out of his 11 appearances. As it stands right now he has allowed 10 ER in 13 IP and has a putrid 5/6 K/BB ratio despite a lucky BABIP. This isn’t the pitcher the Rockies invested $8 million in this offseason and no one foresaw this kind of a break down. Corpas’ spring training stats were solid and he looks healthy, so what gives? When you get into the stats the only significant difference between this season and last year is his strand rate. In 2008 he has allowed 42% of his base runners score. That number is way out of line with league averages and with his own career averages. It seems pretty clear that with runners on base Corpas is a different pitcher this season. With the bases empty he has a BAA of .188, a .92 WHIP, and a decent 4/2 K/BB ratio. Just looking at that stat line would lead you to believe that Manny still has the ability to get guys out, but once they reach base he falls apart. When working out of the stretch he has .444 BAA, 2.77 WHIP, and a 1/4 K/BB ratio. Fatigue may be another factor - in 2007 Corpas only exceeded 15 pitches in roughly 15% of his outings and this season he has thrown 16+ pitches in 25% of his appearances. After looking at the numbers and watching the games, I think his troubles have to be a result of pitching out to the stretch and fatigue. Assuming there is no injury I believe that Corpas will turn this around and that the Rockies will give him every chance to get his job back. You don’t pay a guy $8 million dollars to work in mop up duty, and whether it is right or wrong, Colorado will try to get him back into the 9th if he performs well over the next few weeks. Corpas represents a real opportunity for a savvy fantasy owner. I am not suggesting you trade value for him, but if you can stash him off waivers or trade a half burnt candle and a book of matches for him it would be a good idea. Stick him on your bench and watch him pitch. If you see that he starts to handle pitching with runners on, then you know he is turning a corner and on his way back to closing games. If he doesn’t turn it around then it cost you next to nothing, so who cares? NOTE: After another lackluster performance yesterday he will probably be hitting waivers like crazy today, so you can probably get him for free.

Matt Lindstrom - Lindstrom has been on my radar for a couple of years and is one of my favorite breakthrough candidates this season. He is a hard throwing righty that can blow a fastball by opposing hitters. That speedball can touch 100 MPH and he has a bear’s mentality. Last season his aggregate numbers were impressive, but the fact that he was actually better after the break solidified him as a genuine sleeper for saves this season. After the All-star game he posted a 31/7 K/BB ratio and a WHIP of 1.21. I actually drafted Lindstrom in a few leagues and had to dump him because of better options on the wire, but now I am taking a second look. He had two really rough outings back-to back against Atlanta and Houston, but since then he has been money and earned his first hold of the season last week. If you are looking for a deep sleeper for saves or some cheap holds, Lindstrom is worth a look.

John Albaladejo/Edwar Ramirez – With Brian Bruney hitting the DL, Kyle Farnsworth continuing to disappoint, and Joba Chamberlin a little banged up - the Yankee’s bullpen is in flux. Enter two young arms and a whole bunch of risk. Both guys here are hard throwers and profile as pretty good set up men, but it’s their character and makeup that has some people questioning their ability to progress. Between the two of them, Ramirez has the video game-like numbers – last season he struck out 102 batters in 56.7 innings. The trouble is that he lacks control and, some people say, the confidence necessary to succeed in the majors. Right now the Yankees must feel the same way because they demoted Edwar to AAA and he is stuck there until they get desperate enough to call him up. If given a chance to succeed he may make a serious impact later in the year. Albaladejo, on the other hand, is working out of the pen right now, and if the Yankees stay patient he might end up working the 7th inning on a regular basis. Albaladejo has good stuff but not the mind blowing numbers of Ramirez. Last season he had a 68/24 K/BB in 74.3 IP across three levels for the Nationals organization, but there were some questions about his work ethic/attitude and he was shipped off to the Yankees for Tyler Clippard. Both guys are worth watching, but not worth adding at this point. If Chamberlin does eventually break into the rotation and either guy has been performing well, there is a good chance that at least one of them will have serious fantasy value this season.

Brandon Morrow – No one has ever doubted Morrows ability to mow down opposing batters, but he also has a habit of walking the ball park in the process. The Mariners called Morrow up from AA and so far he has only 1 BB in 3.7 IP. Now I know that’s not a huge sample size, but we are talking about a guy that had 55 BB in 60 IP last season, so anything is an improvement and worth watching. He’s not worthy of a roster spot yet, but should be on everyone’s radar. If he continues to exhibit this new-found control without sacrificing his raw ability, then he has the potential to be one of the more valuable MRs in the game.

Wesley Wright – Wright is a 23-year-old lefty Rule-5 pick with decent stuff. Normally I wouldn’t think of him as anything more than a lefty specialist, but in an Astros pen devoid of real options, the kid is in a good situation and worth mentioning briefly. He did well in AA last season posting a 68/31 K/BB ratio in 61.3 IP, but AAA made him look foolish and he demonstrated no control. Over the last week Wright has pitched 3 innings, allowed no runs, had a 3/0 K/BB ratio, and picked up 2 wins. Just like most of the young guys featured this week, BB will be the most important component of his stat line. Wright is demonstrating control and command right now, so it is possible that he is in the process of establishing himself as a respectable option for the Astros and, if he starts picking up some holds, he can help your fantasy team as well.

Matt Herges – Herges has put together quite a start to the 2008 season. He has put up a 14/5 K/BB ratio in 15.6 IP and been credited with 3 holds, two in the last week. I am not high on Herges, but I don’t hate him either. Most of his success this season is due to an increase in K rate, but he has only posted a K/9 ratio above 7 once in his career and that was 5 seasons ago. It doesn’t help that he is 38, was named in the Mitchell report, has a lucky BABIP, and is probably going to regress toward his career averages as the season progresses. For now Herges is a borderline MR in an Elite league and not anyone I would be counting on. But, as long as he is collecting holds he will be a decent play.

(Daily)- The box scores don't always tell the whole story, but you don't have to miss out on he inside scoop. Check in everyday as Tarrell Graham highlights the previous days MLB action from a fantasy perspective.

(Mondays)- Get the latest insight on bullpen situations for each MLB team. Tarrell Graham will cover the ever-changing world of relief pitching, highlighting potential closer changes and valuable middle men.

(Tuesdays)- Cory Channell brings Wall St. to the fantasy baseball world as he gives you the scoop on when to Buy Low, Sell High and Hold tight.

(Wednesdays)- Walking the waiver wire isn't always graceful but it is vital to a teams success. Check in every Wednesday for Waiver Wire Wasteland with John Thornton.

(Thurdays)- Keeping an eye on the farm leagues isn't only important for Keeper and Dynasty leaguers. Grabbing those key mid-season call-ups can be the push your team over the top.