EFB DRAFT RANKINGS

Monday April 21st, 2008

Shootin' the Bull: Help in the Jays' Pen and Beyond

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Overall Top 25 Drafts

Top 10 rankings by Scoring Category

League by League Breakdown

by Tarrell Graham

Brian Tallet/Scott Downs/Jesse Carlson - In the last few days Jeremy Accardo has been one of the most dropped players across all fantasy sites. I really can’t say that I blame his owners for their impatience, but Accardo was solid last season and it is unlikely that he has just forgotten how to pitch. His velocity isn’t down and here are no reports of an injury (although the Blue Jays aren’t exactly forthcoming about issues like that) so I think he will turn it around and that there is no reason for him to be on a waiver wire in a standard league just yet. Right now he is the victim of some pretty serious bad luck with a BABIP of .370 and a strand rate of less than 40% - which is ridiculously extreme. I am going to stash Accardo away and see what happens in Toronto over the coming weeks. In the meantime, there are some pretty interesting lefties in the Blue Jays pen that maybe able to help you with your ratios and maybe a garbage save or two. Brian Tallet has looked better than any other Blue Jays reliever that I have watched. He has already notched 3 Holds, is averaging a strike out per inning, and so far has kept his walks in check. Downs and Carlson have both being solid – Downs has a couple of Holds and is pitching well, but Carlson is the most intriguing of the three to me. Last season he had an 81/18 K/BB ratio in AA and struck out those 81 batters in only 70 1/3 IP. This season Carlson has struck out 9 in 8 IP and only walked 2 batters. He picked up his first hold Sunday and could start collecting a few more in coming weeks. I am not sure any of these guys are really worth a roster spot yet, but with the pen in Toronto in such flux, and the Jays demonstrating they aren’t opposed to a lefty closer, all these guys are worth keeping your eye on.

Tyler Walker – Walker continues to defy my expectations so far this season. He has already picked up 5 holds and his ratios are great. He has struck out over a batter an inning and looks to be Brian Wilson’s main back up. I really have never liked Walker, but with 5 holds and such good peripheral numbers I am surprised to see him on the wire in a lot of leagues. If Walker is still languishing on the waiver land then you need to grab him, just make sure you keep him on a short leash and don’t be afraid to dump at the first signs of trouble.

Randor Bierd/Chad Bradford – There is no doubt in my mind that Sherrill is going to implode, it just a matter of how soon and how ugly. Sherrill has decent stuff, but isn’t your prototypical closer and his numbers are inflated by an extremely fast start. Bradford is the guy you want as a handcuff for Sherrill and he can help you with your ratios and pick up a few holds in the meantime. Before the season started I was a half-fan of Jamie Walker, but he already has two blown saves and just doesn’t look like as reliable an option as Bradford. I have to admit that I am stealing my super sleeper from the Baseball America guys - I first heard about Bierd during their Rule 5 draft coverage and have been following him pretty closely ever since. He has seemed like the real deal thus far and could be a deep sleeper for saves later in the season. He isn’t striking out guys like I expected (5K in 10 IP) him to based on his hype, but he is still a name worth stashing in case he pitches his way into some holds later on.

Darren Oliver – Yet another guy floundering on most wires. He has already picked up 4 holds and with the Angels always winning there will be a chance for more. Oliver has been a much better pitcher since switching exclusively to relief 2006, and can probably help your ratios and pick up a few more holds, but like Walker you will need to keep him on short leash. Not a strong recommendation because he lacks the K rate to make him an elite reliever, but if you have a 1 in holds and have to do something, Oliver might give you some short term help.

Blaine Boyer  - With Moylan and Soriano on the DL it appears the Braves are turning to Manny Acosta to close, this will thrust Boyer into the primary set up role on a pretty good team and therefore he becomes a good source of holds. Boyer has looked pretty impressive this season and his K/BB and K/9 rates are particularly encouraging. He has struck out 15 batters in 11 IP while only walking two. Boyer has always had the upside, but he was been hampered by injury and inconsistent command. If his K and walk rates stay in line he could even slip in for a few cheap saves down the line.

Leo Nunez  - This one should be the pretty obvious to anyone paying any attention at all. Nunez has been simply disgusting this season and in my opinion has to be viewed as the go-to guy if something happens to Soria. So far he has allowed only two hits in 6 2/3 IP, has struck out 7, and issued just 2 BB. Nunez demonstrated his skills at the end of last season by posting a 3.77 ERA and a 16/2 K/BB as a reliever and has collected 3 holds already this season. He is becoming a very valuable MR option and is a must add in any league that counts holds or for any manager that already owns Soria. If your league has absent mindedly left him on the wire run to a computer immediately and snatch him up.

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