HIT 'EM WHERE THEY AINT

March 28, 2008

by Tarrell Graham

OK, I have had it. I am sick of fantasy writers that use bad segues to shoe-horn insipid personal anecdotes into needlessly long and rambling intros that have nothing to do with baseball and add nothing to their article. At this point, I would rather listen exclusively to the White Sox announcers for enternity than read one more story about how Nick Johnson’s bum knees remind some fantasy writer of his ex-wife. Its silly, its been done, and worst of all it has never really been entertaining. It’s unlikely that this trend is going to stop any time soon, especially since ESPN is now televising a stomach turning Fantasy Draft Special, but at least I wont be contributing to the profusion of sloopy pseudo-comedy writing that is cluttering every fantasy site on the web – that makes me feel better some how and I suppose “that’s one for the good guys.”

Between now and opening day I am going to preview some guys that I grab late in my drafts every season and every year I regret the pick, until now. I am jumping on all these long shots one last time and betting this will be the year these fantasy teases make good.

Daniel Cabrera

D-Cab, the killer of all things WHIP has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, but doesn’t have the mental fortitude to withstand the pressure of a serious game of Go-Fish. Every year, he walks 7 guys, destroys my WHIP, and I drop him. Then, without fail, the very next start, he hangs K’s all around Camden Yards and blanks the Yankees for 8 innings. He is an enigma and so tempting I can never resist giving him one more shot.

UPSIDE

He is filthy, absolutely filthy when he is on. When his head is in the game you would never know that he can be erratic - he can look so self assured and dominant that you would swear he was a Cy Young candidate. He has the stuff to fan at least 220 hitters in a full 35 starts and maybe now that Bedard has been traded and the show is all his, something will click. Being in a position to take the lead on a young O’s staff may cause him to step up and take his place amongst the elite AL starters.

DOWNSIDE

He is a loose cannon and a mental case. He pitches in the AL East, has no run support, a spotty defense, and hasn’t posted a WHIP under 1.5 in three years. The talent is obviously there but he isn’t demonstrating anything this spring that says he has taken the next step in his maturation process and who knows if he ever will. To start him is to get a 2.00 WHIP tallied against you and to sit him is to miss a 13 K performance – the most frustrating pitcher in the majors to own on a fantasy squad.

BOTTOM LINE

I am very hesitant to put D-Cab anywhere near my starting lineup and there are seemingly a hundred better uses for a bench spot, but as I said from the beginning I can’t resist this group. I am not forking over anything to get him, but I am picking him up in a few leagues off waivers. The only way to handle Cabrera is to pick him up and wait till mid-May to make a decision about starting him. I am stashing him away in hopes that his horrible spring stats are due to experimentation and that when the season starts he will unleash a devastating arsenal of pitches that will bring the evil empire to its knees, but I am not holding my breath. If you have room, store him away. But dont expect miracles – that’s my job. I am bravely/foolishly projecting 13 Wins 3.90 ERA 1.34 WHIP and 230 K’s – no I am not kidding. Seriously, I am not kidding. No really I believe that. I sincerely mean it, stop laughing.  

Corey Patterson

Corey Patterson is the poster child for inconsistency and unfufilled potential. The offensive guys on this list have one thing in common – absolutely zero plate discipline. Patterson's case is particularly frustrating because he has all the talent in the world if he would just play within his game and not try to be a slugger. It’s impossible to see so much natural athleticism in a player and not drool over the potential impact he could have on your fantasy team. He has shown flashes of brilliance and actually put together a very good season is 2004 when he went 24/32 and walked close to 50 times. That line was the best of his career, but '04 wasnt a total abberation. As recently as 2006 he put up solid #3 OF numbers - that year in Baltimore he posted a .276 16 HR 45 SB season.

UPSIDE

He is playing in a great hitters park in Cincy and has played well enough this spring to lock up a starting job. Dusty Baker is obviously familiar with Patterson and his potential, plus he loves his veterans, so Corey should get every opportunity to stick. The Red’s don’t steal bases like the Angels, but as a team they aren’t shy about running and if Patterson can get on base he can swipe 40 bags in his sleep. Playing half his games in Great American Ballpark should help his power and it’s not unreasonable to think that he can add 20 HR to his stolen bases. Also working in his favor is the fact that he has very little competition for time. Jay Bruce is knocking on the door to Great American, but odds are he won’t even get close to regular playing time until July at the earliest and it’s unlikely any of the veterans will stay healthy long enough to push Patterson for time - during the writing of this article Ryan Freel probably ran into a wall and is on his way to the Emergency Room as we speak, Junior is undoubtedly driving him since he has the quickest routes memorized.

DOWNSIDE

He doesn’t walk and he strikes out like Matt Berry trying to sell a catch phrase. The lack of BB is a huge knock against him in Elite leagues; plus his average is going to be .270 at best. So he has the potential to really hurt you in two categories and only really help in SB’s and HR’s. It also hurts that he was trending down in virtually every category last season and seemingly will not accept that he is just not a power hitter.

BOTTOM LINE 

I am buying into the power of Great American Ballpark and steady playing time. I don’t think Patterson will be more than a solid #3 this season, but I am drafting and trading for him as often as possible. I am bravely/foolishly projecting a .270 BA, 18 HR, and 37 SB, all while adding 45 BB.

Wily Mo Pena

WILY MO!!! If you read my PCL AAA draft recap you know I love Wily Mo. The first thing you need to know is that he isn’t as old as you think he is – Wily just turned 26 and if he can get healthy he will have his first real full-time gig.

UPSIDE

He is a monster at the plate. I don’t pretend that his ABs are pretty or that he can even see a good breaking pitch, but if you leave a fast ball anywhere near the plate it may end up in Nebraska. Pena generates massive power and with the new park in Washington rumored to be much more hitter friendly than RFK, it's not hard to imagine Wily peppering the White House lawn with long fly balls. He has never had a full time gig, but at 22 he hit 26 HR in a mere 336 AB. The power is not a fluke as Pena hit 8 HR in less than 150 AB after he was traded to the Nationals last season.

DOWNSIDE

He never seems to take advantage of an opportunity. It’s not totally his fault, but his current oblique injury is the most recent in a long line of career speed bumps. After five seasons of waiting for him to really earn a spot and become a star, it’s easy to get frustrated with Wily. Like Patterson, Pena has never learned to take a walk and has less than 100 BB over the last 5 seasons. It is highly unlikely that Pena will suddenly become a patient hitter and with his inability to put wood on any pitch with movement, his ABs are ugly to watch.

BOTTOM LINE

BUY PENA NOW!! I have had so much crazy love for this guy that I cant back off now with out losing credibility. His oblique strain is bad news if Dukes gets off to a hot start in Washington, but in some ways its great news for fantasy owners. Since TSN allows you to stash DL players and the Elite Leagues use 2 DL spots, picking up Pena is a no-brainier. He is one of the most dropped players on TSN and may be sitting on your waiver wire waiting to be plucked up. I am bravely/foolishly projecting at least .270 BA, 32 HR, and 85 RBI. Yeah I said it – again.

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