EFB DRAFT RANKINGS

Saturday, June 21st, 2008

Shooting the Bull: Weekly Bullpen Commentary

by Tarrell Graham

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Overall Top 25 Drafts

Top 10 rankings by Scoring Category

League by League Breakdown

So, you guys are going to get a little bonus material this Saturday, aren’t you so lucky? Yep, yours truly is back at the keyboard taping out another thousand words for your fantasy edification. The truth is that I really don’t mind knocking out another article if it pleases our constituents and this weekend we are resurrecting "Shooting the Bull". Currently I am buzzing about 70 MPH through North Carolina back roads and listening to The Hold Steady’s new album “Stay Positive” – don’t be fooled, the title is more than a little tongue-in-cheek and trust me it will inspire you to anything but positivity. What it lacks in uplifting message it makes up for in guts. These guys make me want to spend my whole paycheck on poorly-mixed Jager bombs and make out against a dumpster with a girl who is named after an American muscle car. The old days sure were easy – success was simply to afford name brand cigarettes, a running A/C, and marrying a girl with a longer drivers license number than yours. Now, I am fighting car sickness on the way to my in-laws house, I know intimately what the hell an H.O.A. is, and l am really looking forward to a Brie appetizer. Oh how we age. So in the midst of this early mid-life crisis John calls me from an interstate in CA. He is driving full tilt into LA with a bad iPod mix and his fiancée, he ask me, “Hmm, You think you could get something up tomorrow, you know just to keep up the flow.” I absently mindedly agreed, distracted by the potential pit stop bars that litter southern backwater towns.I am developing some sort of sinister yearning listening to this new album; trying to pick out lyrics and all the while eyeing every single-doored cinderblock bar, wanting to measure myself against this or that town and its parties. After I hung up the phone, I realized how impossibly hard it is to move from grand delusions of youth and virility to the Brewers bullpen situation. It’s not that I don’t love baseball, but right now my mind is in a gravel parking lot outside a block building crudely painted with black and orange streaks, leaning against some strangers Honda Civic and taking sips from a warm Pabst at irregular but steady intervals. Evidently, I have reached the age where pining away for the yesteryear becomes a past time and groping girls with fake ID’s is frowned upon. Oh well, it’s not all that bad, now-a-days I can afford clean hotel rooms and no longer associate with guys called Rhino who shake incessantly...ahhh...onto the baseball...tonight we’ll talk about guys that have tantalized us with their talents in the past and are seemingly having a resurgence…

(Players linked to their fangraphs.com pages)

But first, an update for you save vultures…

Brandon Morrow/Sean Green  – Morrow has been hyped on his site for months so it’s been no surprise to us that he has succeeded in the closer role, though I personally didn’t expect him to exhibit this sort of phenomenal control. He has been a great WW pick up, but Friday he failed to make the trip to Atlanta with his fellow Mariners. Apparently he is having some “minor” back problems and the team left him behind to get checked out. It’s unclear at this point who will be grabbing the save chances in the meantime, but Sean Green has actually been very effective as of late and could snag a vulture save over the weekend. It’s still unclear how serious this injury will be, but we do know it has been bothering him for a few weeks and over that time he has be nothing short of dominant. I wouldn’t worry too much as a Morrow owner, but I would definitely have Sean Green on my watch list. Those absolutely desperate for saves might even considering stashing Green for the weekend –worst case scenario you can drop him Monday and if Morrow is out any significant period of time you might steal a handful of saves.

Aaron Heilman  (Owned in 2% of TSN Leagues) – Don’t look now, but Heilman seems to be finding his stride. No doubt he was horrible over the first few months of the season, but over the last 30 days he has posted a very respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His recent success is due to a decrease in BB/9 and maybe this control is here to stay. I am not sure he has truly turned a corner, but with his track record of success he has to be put back on the middle relief radar. If you are in the lower have of your leagues in holds, you need to go ahead and snatch up Heilman and hope for the best.

Kyle Farnsworth  (Owned 1% of TSN Leagues) – I remember the excitement when Farnsworth joined the Yankees. As a guy who has been playing in holds leagues for years, a potentially dominant set up man finding himself on one of the best teams in baseball made my mouth water. Unfortunately, Farnsworth has been a huge disappointment for New York and fantasy owners alike – over two seasons he hasn’t posted an ERA under 4 or less than a 1.36 WHIP. Coming into this season he was an afterthought in all formats, but thanks to improved control and an uptick in K/9, Farnsworth is pitching his way back into relevance. This season he has posted his lowest BB/9 since 2001; admittedly 3.24 BB/9 isn’t spectacular, but it is solid and with a K/9 over 8 Farnsworth has been able to minimize any damage from walks. If you need some holds Farnsworth makes a great add – he has picked up 3 in the last week.

NOTE: Working the long shot angle - With Joba the Slut starting there is no clear heir apparent for saves if something happened to Mo Rivera and it makes sense that Farnsworth would at least be in the mix for saves. Just something to chew on.

Jesse Crain (Owned 1% of TSN Leagues) – Last season Crain was awful early in the season and then he struggled with shoulder problems that eventually required surgery. Due in large part to his performance, and also because of Pat Neshek emergence as a brilliant late inning option, Crain was a forgotten man. After Neshek went down for the season, Crain was thrust into the spotlight again and has done a very solid job. It is easy to forget that early in his career Crain was thought of as Minnesota’s long term replacement for Joe Nathan, but he hasn’t demonstrated the dominance or mound presence necessary to claim even set up duties. His 2005 season looks good on the surface (2.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP), but Crain struck out a pitiful 2.82 batters per nine and his .216 BABIP was lucky, even for a reliever. The ratios that he posted that season are probably out of reach, but his 2006 line is well within reach. Crain has his K/9 this season up over 7 and has done a decent job with his control – only walking 3 batters in his last 15 IP. If he can continue that sort of pace he will be a very valuable source of holds for the remainder of the season. I am not jumping on his bandwagon whole-heartedly yet because of his recent injuries and fly ball tendencies, but he is on my watch list and someone that I will jump on if I need holds.

(Daily)- The box scores don't always tell the whole story, but you don't have to miss out on he inside scoop. Check in everyday as Tarrell Graham highlights the previous days MLB action from a fantasy perspective.

(Mondays)- Get the latest insight on bullpen situations for each MLB team. Tarrell Graham will cover the ever-changing world of relief pitching, highlighting potential closer changes and valuable middle men.

(Tuesdays)- Cory Channell brings Wall St. to the fantasy baseball world as he gives you the scoop on when to Buy Low, Sell High and Hold tight.

(Wednesdays)- Walking the waiver wire isn't always graceful but it is vital to a teams success. Check in every Wednesday for Waiver Wire Wasteland with John Thornton.

(Thurdays)- Keeping an eye on the farm leagues isn't only important for Keeper and Dynasty leaguers. Grabbing those key mid-season call-ups can be the push your team over the top.