The AA Southern league is busy making deadline moves as some epic battles are shaping up for an exciting stretch run.

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Tuesday, March 3rd

High-Scoring PCL Heats Up

2009 Draft Guide:

Second Base

With 43 trades and over 1000 total transactions, the PCL has easily been the most active league in the Elite system this season.

Two-Horse Race In Texas

By Tarrell Graham

TIER ONE

Ian Kinsler – Look, I don't believe in Pedroia's production and Utley is hurt so Kinsler is going to top my second base rankings. He plays in a great hitter's environment and with the addition of Chris Davis to an already solid lineup there will be plenty of opportunity for production. Last season's .319 18 HR 26 SB performance is going to be this a floor for what I expect this year and a 25/30 performance is not out of the question. Kinsler has great secondary stats and there are no red flags in any of his numbers. Some people have had issue with his drop in BB% last season but it was accompanied by an equal dramatic drop in K% so I see no reason to worry. Kinsler has had a serious problem with trying to stay health over his short career and that has to affect his value on some level but at this point none of his injuries have been more than flukes and they haven't been unrelated. In a year where MI is going to be especially shallow Kinsler is prime target after the first round. I wouldn't hesitate to take him before any other 2B including Utley.

Chase Utley – Last season I kept advising readers to trade Utley after his torrid start and some how I got typecast as an Utley hater. Look, I just want to set the record straight – if you held onto Utley thinking he was going to hit 40 HRs then you were high, but that doesn't mean he isn't a brute. It goes with out saying that the 30 HR plateau is obviously not a fluke for Utley and neither are the SB numbers. There is not doubt that when he is healthy Utley is the undisputed number one first baseman but with his rib injury there are some serious question marks coming into the season. As of now he is on schedule to start swinging a bat by mid-February and plans to be ready for opening day. If Utley can work his way onto the field to start the season there is no telling how a rib injury will affect his power but he has a great work ethic and is a gritty ball player. If he can play the full season his usual .290 30 +/- HR and 10+ SB should be easy marks for him to reach but that is totally dependant on his health. At risk of being mislabeled a hater again I personally don't think he will be worth the price and unless you can get after the 20th pick I would stay away. There are solid healthy options like Phillips, Kinsler and even Pedroia so taking Utley before any of them is definitely a risk. In my opinion the number one rule of early drafting is to minimize risk and without some really good reports out of spring training there are much more secure 2B options but none with more upside or talent. Of course in the last week or so Utley has started to take BP and reports are good – for now I am going to leave him below Kinsler, but if he demonstrates health and his ADP is still low he will quickly transform from a risk to a super value.

 

TIER TWO

Brandon Phillips – Phillips is a bittersweet write up for me. I scooped him off waivers in my main keeper league early in 2007 and then sold low in order to secure the league championship. That trade has haunted me and in the past it has been difficult to admit just how good he really has become. I wonder if Mark Shapiro has the same sickening knot in his stomach ever time he hears the name Jeff Stevens? Coming into the 2008 I stayed away from Phillips in all my leagues because of the pang of irrational nausea whenever I heard his name and it turns out that wasn't such a bad decision. Admittedly his numbers they were still good enough to make him a solid 2B but he did regress last season and he ended the year with a disappointing .261/.312/.442 line. That line is especially bad when you consider that at mid-season he was hitting .280 with 15 HR and 20 SB. During the second half of last season he fell apart – his power disappeared, he was caught 60% of the time when attempting to steal and his BA plummeted. Looking at his secondary stats it is unclear exactly why Phillips had such a precipitous second have swoon. For the season his CT%, K% and BB% were all relatively consistent and he proved during the first few months that he obviously is capable of some monster production. Because of the inexplicable nature of his nose dive, his horrible RHP and road splits, and a declining LD% there are some major risk factors associate with Phillips but I am still recommending him to owners because his huge upside will cost you a fraction of Kinsler or Utley. If you can get him in round three or later then there is real value in the pick despite the risk. Is it possible that Phillips completely forgot how to hit? Sure, but it is highly unlikely and a .275 25/25 season is much more probable.

 

Brian Roberts – There is a really solid argument for Roberts actually being the best pick among the top tier of second baseman. He is virtually assured of fallen into the fourth round in most drafts so he is relatively cheap, he is healthy and has a proven track record of steady production. After Roberts is off the board the pickings for 2B are going to get really slim and so for those owners that are heavily influenced by position scarcity this is the last stop. Last year marked Robert's fifth consecutive very productive season and he has cemented himself as an elite speed threat. Barring an injury there is no reason to think that 2009 won't be another solid season for Orioles second baseman. The majority of his secondary numbers are right in line with his career norms and with so many seasons of steady production there is little reason to worry that he will have a breakdown this year. It does need to be noted however that last season his K% did jump up slightly and his BA was inflated by a .345 BABIP. I would expect his BA to drop back toward the .285-.290 range but otherwise he is the safest of the top tier second baseman.

 

NOTE: There is no such thing as a safe fantasy option.

Alexei Ramirez – Where to place Ramirez is tough because he has so little real history to examine. If we had a track record of meaningful stats that could be contextualized I would perhaps consider bumping him up a tier. I have noticed that most draft guides and experts are already placing him into the top tier of second baseman and some even go so far as to predict a 25+ HR season and comparing him to Soriano. Really?!? I am not saying that it isn't possible but since we don't have a way to properly put Cuban stats into context it is hard to tell whether last season was a true reflection of his skills, if he over performed or if there is still room for growth at list from a statistical standpoint. Ramirez is listed as a 27 entering this season and so from an age standpoint it is reasonable to expect further development. After watching him last season it is clear that this guy is a heck of an athlete and he definitely lived up to the scouting reports we all read last spring. For many MI weak fantasy owners Ramirez was a god send last season; anytime you can pluck a .290 BA, 21 HR and 13 SB off the waiver wire you have to be pretty happy. The question still remains though, is he Junior Spivey or will he mature into Chase Utley Lite? In my opinion he is going to be a solid option but not a top of the line second baseman - there I said it and now will have to live with the consequences if he morphs into a brute. In fantasy it seems that every year there is a 2B that comes out of nowhere to contribute and then heads right back in to relative obscurity in short order. I clearly remember drafting Marcus Giles, Juan Uribe, Junior Spivey, Tadahito Iguchi and many others expecting them to ascend into the upper tier only to be disappointed. Many of those guys had solid careers but none of then stepped up and built on their breakthrough seasons to become elite options. I have three main issues with Ramirez heading into 2009. First, his average is going to dip a little. He simply doesn't have the patience or CT% to maintain and average over .290. Secondly, his BB% is terrible and so he is going to seriously hurt your BB totals with a horrible .317 OBP – that translates into only 18 BB!! Last but not least, he is not a good base stealer. Yes he had 13 swipes last season but he was also caught 9 times. That is not an acceptable success rate and he will have to make adjustments and become more efficient to take a step forward. My gut says that Ramirez is going to follow that same path to mediocrity but in a year where MI is so shallow he has to be a serious consideration after the top 5 guys are off the board. I wouldn't reach for him but if he fell to me late I might over look my concerns.

 

Dustin Pedroia - MVP awards and long term contacts are nice but we all know the holy grail of sports is the video game cover. Who cares about money and the respect of your peers when you can grace the cover of MLB The Show 09'? One thing is for sure – EA Sports wasn't setting up a photo shoot for Pedroia last spring. He was obviously solid in 2007 but no one could have seen his explosive break out last year. The question for all fantasy owners this year will be how much of that breakout was real and whether his counting numbers will regress in 2009. For my money I am expecting him to regress. The facts are these: Before 2008's 17 HR breakout Pedroia was never projected to hit for significant power, had never hit more than 13 HR in a season, doesn't have the swing or body type needed to consistently hit for power and there has never been any indication in his secondary numbers (doubles, HR/FB%, etc) that a power boost was on the way. Is it possible that the power will stick? I suppose but it is unlikely. It is much more reasonable to expect a 12-13 HR season with solid numbers across the board. His BABIP was a tad high but his CT% and LD% are good enough that he shouldn't see much of a BA dip. Pedroia has also progressed as a stolen base threat and post a ridiculous 95% success rate last season and that level of efficiency should mean that he will have a decent SB total despite playing for the Red Sox. Overall Pedroia's skill set and team will put him in the top 5 second basemen but there is no way I would take him before Kinsler, Utley or even Phillips unless you plan to trade him to a Sox fan early in the season. Don't pay for more than a 15/15 season.

After struggling for the first two months of the season, 5280 has taken control of the AA Texas League, but No. 2 Cory's Crew is closing the gap.

Future Is Bright For California League

Comments

  1. Mansfield - his BABIP wasnt flucky when you consider his LD% was barely above 16%. His eBABIP wasnt much higher than his actual. Just a note.

    (Posted on 2009-04-15 01:18:00 by TGraham)

  2. Phillips' BABIP was well down last year -- to .281. That looks pretty flukey to me... wouldn't be at all surprise if he pulled a Dan Uggla this year and returned to his "true" BA of .280 or so.

    Of course, I feel some of Uggla's 2007 slump was due to his adjusting to a more patient approach at the plate... Phillips doesn't walk. He's never walked, and I feel a guy who doesn't have patience is more subject to declines like that -- it's more possible that pitchers have just found a way to pitch him, because if they DID find one, odds are he'd keep swinging.

    Anyway, he's going to harm you in the walks department. (Well, maybe not against the poor chump who ends up manning 2B with Howie Kendrick...)

    I mean, I don't know. It's second base. You pretty much have to get what you can, because there's more people getting than there is talent to be gotten. But that's mostly your problem.

    (Posted on 2009-03-15 13:39:00 by Mansfield)

  3. TG,

    Glad to see you found your pen again....My drafts start in a couple of weeks and there's nothing like getting a boost of confidence with an "insiders edge" so to speak. Keep the articles coming.

    (Posted on 2009-03-04 12:58:00 by CP)

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